Ge Long Hui·2025-09-07 02:51Core Viewpoint - The overall performance for FY26Q1 showed a revenue of 247.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, slightly below BBG expectations, while adjusted net profit was 33.5 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year, also below expectations [1] Segment Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue reached 140.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, but adjusted EBITA fell by 21% to 38.4 billion yuan [1] - AIDC reported revenue of 34.7 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA at a loss of 0.59 billion yuan, an improvement of 98% year-on-year [1] - The intelligent cloud group generated revenue of 33.4 billion yuan, a 26% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA of 3 billion yuan, also up 26% [1] - Other revenues totaled 58.6 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA at a loss of 1.4 billion yuan, down 31% [1] E-commerce Insights - Domestic e-commerce profits are under pressure, with adjusted EBITA for the domestic e-commerce business at 38.4 billion yuan, down 21% year-on-year, influenced by subsidies [1] - Instant retail revenue grew by 12% to 14.8 billion yuan, with take rate improvements driven by new service fees starting September 1, 2024, and increased merchant penetration of promotional tools [1] - The integration of Taotian Group, Ele.me, and Fliggy into a larger consumer platform is expected to enhance synergies [1] User Growth and Operational Metrics - Taobao Flash Sales has seen rapid user growth, with monthly active users exceeding 300 million, a 200% increase since April [2] - Daily order volume peaked at 120 million, with an average of 80 million orders per day [2] - The active rider count for Taobao Flash Sales has tripled to over 2 million since April [2] - The platform is projected to generate an additional 1 trillion yuan in transactions over the next three years from flash sales and instant retail [2] Cloud Business Growth - Cloud revenue reached 33.4 billion yuan, a 26% year-on-year increase, exceeding BBG expectations [2] - AI-related product revenue has shown triple-digit year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters [2] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) hit a record high of 38.6 billion yuan, significantly above BBG expectations, with a commitment to invest 380 billion yuan in AI over the next three years [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,049.7 billion yuan, 1,158.1 billion yuan, and 1,301.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 10.3%, and 12.4% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 are 123.7 billion yuan, 173.2 billion yuan, and 202 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -21.7%, +40.0%, and +16.6% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [3]