GigaDevice(SH:603986) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-07 02:54Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the investment potential of Zhaoyi Innovation, highlighting its recent stock price performance and the need for careful evaluation of its valuation, fundamentals, and market trends [1]. Valuation Screening - Zhaoyi Innovation's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 91.26, which is above the industry average. The estimated net profit for 2025 ranges from 1.452 billion to 1.774 billion yuan, suggesting a reasonable market value between 64 billion and 80 billion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of approximately 134 to 168 yuan. The current price of 158 yuan is near the upper limit of this range, indicating limited short-term safety margin [3]. - For medium to long-term investors, a phased investment strategy is recommended rather than chasing high prices [3]. Fundamental Screening - Zhaoyi Innovation is a leading player in both storage and MCU (Microcontroller Unit) sectors, holding the second-largest global market share in NOR Flash and the top position in MCU in China. The company is expected to see significant growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 7.356 billion yuan (up 27.69% year-on-year) and net profit of 1.103 billion yuan (up 584.21% year-on-year). In the first half of 2025, revenue is expected to reach 4.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [4]. - The company's financial health is strong, with excellent profitability, growth potential, and debt repayment capacity. Key growth drivers include: 1. Storage chips benefiting from increased storage capacity demands in AI terminals and a favorable market for niche DRAM due to the exit of major overseas manufacturers. 2. MCU leadership with over 700 products, actively expanding into automotive-grade and AI MCUs, already supplying major companies like BYD and Tesla [5]. 3. Entry into power management chips through the acquisition of Suzhou Saixin, creating synergies with existing operations [6]. Market Trend Screening - Zhaoyi Innovation is positioned at the intersection of three significant market trends: 1. AI edge computing, with rising demand for storage and computing chips in AI devices such as AI phones and AI glasses, making the company a key beneficiary. 2. Automotive electronics, where the trend towards electrification and intelligence in vehicles is driving demand for automotive-grade MCUs and storage chips, potentially increasing the company's revenue share [8]. 3. Domestic substitution, with accelerated localization of the semiconductor supply chain supported by policy and external pressures, allowing the company to continue benefiting as a market leader [9]. Technical Analysis and Strategy - The stock price of Zhaoyi Innovation is currently fluctuating between 150 and 160 yuan, with attention needed on whether it can break through the 160 yuan resistance level and the support around 145 yuan [10]. - Suggested investment strategies include: - Gradual accumulation below 145 yuan, with increased investment if the price approaches 130 yuan [11]. - Initial investment should not exceed 30% of the total planned investment, reserving funds for further purchases during price corrections [12]. - Short-term stop-loss set at 140 yuan, with a wider stop-loss for long-term investors at 120 yuan; target price range is 168-180 yuan [13]. - Key indicators to monitor include inventory turnover days, DRAM gross margin changes, and orders for automotive-grade MCUs [14].