华邮：美国经济“黄金时代”没来，衰退可能要先来了

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing potential recession risks despite promises of a "golden era" under Trump's administration, with weak job growth and high inflation contributing to a deteriorating economic outlook [1][3] - The economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, indicating stagnation in the labor market since the initiation of Trump's tariff policies [3][4] - The probability of recession is estimated to be close to 50%, with significant reasons for economic slowdown being identified [3][4] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing its weakest recruitment situation in over 60 years, excluding recession periods, raising concerns about economic health [3][4] - Trump's administration has faced criticism for its immigration policies, which have reduced the availability of foreign workers, further straining recruitment efforts [7][8] - The total federal government employment has decreased by 97,000, reflecting efforts to cut public sector jobs [8] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - There is a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in response to economic conditions, with a 90% probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut anticipated [4][5] - Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's delayed actions has been a recurring theme, with calls for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy [4][5] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector has not shown signs of recovery related to tariffs, with a decline of 41,000 jobs since February [6][8] - Trump's tariffs, the highest since the 1930s, were intended to boost domestic manufacturing but have instead created uncertainty for businesses regarding new investments and hiring [6][8] Legislative Impact - Trump's signature legislation, referred to as the "big and beautiful plan," is expected to encourage business investment, although its effectiveness remains to be seen [6] - The economic growth forecast for the current quarter is modest, with Morgan Stanley predicting a growth rate of 1.5% [6]