油价：低库存支撑但供需转弱，欧佩克或增产施压

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including geopolitical premiums, high refinery crack spreads supporting high operating rates, and potential OPEC production increases, alongside downward expectations for refined oil demand [1] Group 1: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads are supporting high operating rates [1] - OPEC may continue to increase production, which could put downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Low inventory issues in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting the market [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a consensus on weakening supply and demand expectations in the medium term [1] - The potential for OPEC to push for a second phase of production increases during the upcoming meeting may further pressure oil prices [1] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a state of wide fluctuations [1]