沪铜：9月产量减5.25万吨，短期维持偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelters, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelters [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, refined copper imports have declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons monthly, raising net import pressure on China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 85%, leading to expectations of a weaker dollar, which enhances the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low position of copper holdings below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The combination of macroeconomic rate cut expectations and tightening supply supports copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas limit the extent of price increases, resulting in a short-term strong oscillation in copper prices [1]