特朗普关税战走向美国高院，接下来会发生什么？关键时点是哪些？

Core Viewpoint - A legal storm regarding the trade powers of the U.S. President is escalating, with a recent appellate court ruling declaring most of President Trump's global tariff policies illegal, creating uncertainty in U.S. trade strategy [1] Legal Timeline - The legal battle's direction will become clearer in the coming weeks, with a critical date of October 14, when the appellate court's stay expires. If the Supreme Court does not intervene by then, the ruling will take effect, leading to the automatic expiration of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2] Alternative Tariff Strategies - Even if the IEEPA's use is limited, the Trump administration may still utilize other legal authorizations to maintain tariff pressure, potentially compensating for an expected revenue loss of approximately $150 billion through selective tariff increases [3] Potential Winners - If the Supreme Court restricts presidential tariff powers, large retailers like Amazon and Walmart could benefit from reduced import costs and more competitive pricing. Additionally, exporters from Vietnam, ASEAN countries, Brazil, and India may experience a reduction in trade barriers, creating a positive backdrop for U.S. and global stock markets [4] Potential Losers - The U.S. bond market may face challenges due to decreased tariff revenue exacerbating the already strained fiscal deficit. Furthermore, tariffs on strategic sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and steel may persist, leading to supply chain volatility. The global shipping and logistics industry could also encounter new compliance challenges and unpredictable costs due to fragmented trade policies [6]