沪铜：9月减产5.25万吨，短期偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the import volume of refined copper has declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons per month, raising net import pressure for China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has risen to 85%, which, along with a weaker dollar, has increased the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low holding of copper futures below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations of interest rate cuts and tightening supply are supporting copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas are limiting price increases, leading to a short-term expectation of strong fluctuations in copper prices [1]