油价：地缘支撑但供需转弱，欧佩克增产或施压

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads, despite a downward trend in refined oil demand and the possibility of OPEC increasing production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery activity are currently supporting the oil market [1] - There is a prevailing expectation of weaker supply and demand in the medium term, which is putting pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: OPEC Influence - OPEC may consider further production increases in its upcoming meeting, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - The market sentiment indicates that low inventories in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting current oil prices [1]