黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.9.7）

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices surged to historical highs this week, with a three-day consecutive increase from Monday to Wednesday, peaking around 3600 before a slight pullback at the end of the week [1] - The overall weekly performance of gold concluded with a significant bullish candlestick [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - A rate cut is almost certain, with the debate centered on whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, following disappointing non-farm payroll data showing only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, with June's data revised to a negative growth of 13,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since December 2020 [2] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have reached 99%, with differing opinions among institutions regarding the extent of the cut [2] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key focus for next week includes the U.S. August CPI/PPI data, which could influence rate cut expectations depending on whether inflation exceeds or remains moderate [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a 2% deposit rate, with internal divisions on inflation risks potentially leading to differing policy actions [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current gold market is in a strong upward trend, confirming the initiation of a 5-wave upward structure after breaking the 3500 resistance level [7] - The analysis indicates that the gold price is currently in the 3rd wave of the upward movement, with specific internal structures identified for further price movements [10] - The next critical point to watch is 3511, which serves as a key level; if breached, it may indicate a transition to a corrective phase [10]