6亿订单无人接：中国商业航天卡在“最后一公里”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations necessary for meeting international regulatory deadlines [1][3][13]. Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. has a rocket launch order with a total budget of 616 million RMB, aimed at supporting its "Qianfan Constellation" satellite network [2]. - The repeated failures in the bidding process for this order highlight the lack of qualified private rocket companies capable of fulfilling large-scale launch contracts [3][4]. - The urgency for satellite companies is underscored by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite launches to retain orbital and frequency resources [6][8]. Group 2: Current Launch Activity - As of mid-August 2025, China has conducted 35 space launches, a record for the first half of the year, with a notable increase in launch frequency driven by companies like China Star Network [9][11]. - China Star Network completed five network launches in a span of 21 days, successfully deploying 38 satellites using multiple types of rockets [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The commercial satellite market is experiencing a surge in contracts, with companies like Aerospace Hongtu signing a 990 million RMB contract for satellite and ground system procurement [4]. - Despite the high demand for satellite launches, the industry lacks a large-capacity liquid rocket comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which poses a significant challenge for satellite deployment [4][21]. Group 4: Rocket Development and Prospects - The current bidding process by Yuanxin Satellite has revealed a shortage of suppliers capable of providing large-capacity launch services, indicating a critical gap in the market [13][16]. - Three private rocket companies—Tianbing Technology, Blue Arrow Aerospace, and CAS Space—have emerged as potential suppliers for upcoming launches, although none have completed a successful orbital flight yet [27][28]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is witnessing a shift towards developing large-capacity, reusable liquid rockets, with companies like Tianbing Technology and Blue Arrow Aerospace focusing their resources on this goal [24][25]. - The establishment of new launch facilities and the readiness of suppliers for mass production are crucial steps towards addressing the current launch capacity bottleneck [28][29].