芦哲：9月FOMC前的主角团——2025年8月美国非农就业数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The August non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, marking a deviation of -2.68 standard deviations. The previous value was revised from 73,000 to 79,000, with a cumulative downward revision of 21,000 for the prior two months. The June non-farm payrolls were adjusted from an initial value of 147,000 to -13,000, the first negative reading since 2021. The unemployment rate stood at 4.324%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.248% [3][4]. Employment Data - The labor market shows a weak demand for labor, with the three-month average non-farm payrolls at 29,000, which is the worst since October 2010 when excluding pandemic effects. The employment diffusion index for one year is at 58.4, indicating only 58.4% of companies are hiring, the lowest for a non-recession period. The one-month diffusion index is at 49.6, below the breakeven line, also the lowest for a non-recession period [5][4]. Supply and Demand Structure - The labor market is characterized by a "distorted balance" of weak supply and demand. The labor supply is marginally weakening due to early retirements and the expulsion of illegal immigrants, with the labor participation rate for those aged 55 and above still 2.2% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Labor demand continues to weaken due to previous shocks and high interest rates, with the year-on-year growth rate of total non-farm employment at 0.93%, showing a downward trend [5][4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Three key data points will influence the Federal Reserve's stance at the September FOMC meeting: the initial non-farm payrolls calibration on September 9, PPI on September 10, and CPI on September 11. The expectation is for a 25 basis points rate cut, with the dot plot indicating an additional 1-2 cuts for the year, aligning with market expectations. However, there are risks of a more dovish or hawkish approach depending on the data outcomes [6][4]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market initially reacted positively, interpreting the bad news as good news (leading to rate cuts and a soft landing). However, the sentiment shifted to viewing bad news as bad news, resulting in declines in U.S. stocks and copper prices, while other asset classes experienced volatility. Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut rates 1.1 times in September and 2.9 times throughout the year [4][6].