全球寄美包裹暴跌81%！特朗普新政颠覆跨境贸易

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant impact of the U.S. government's decision to eliminate the $800 tax exemption on imported packages, leading to a drastic reduction in cross-border e-commerce and severe disruptions in the global postal network [1][3] - The new policy has resulted in 81% fewer packages being sent to the U.S. since its implementation, causing 88 global postal operators to suspend or limit their services to the U.S. [1][3] - The policy change is seen as a major shift in U.S. trade policy, previously allowing tax-free entry for packages under $800, which the government now views as a "trade loophole" [3] Group 2 - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that rely on low-cost cross-border goods are facing a survival crisis, with some reporting order interruption rates as high as 60% [5][7] - Analysts estimate that SMEs could face over $71 billion in increased costs due to the new policy, with the average package value around $48, significantly impacting their already thin profit margins [7] - Business owners are left with difficult choices: absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers, leading to potential price increases [7] Group 3 - U.S. consumers, particularly low-income families, are indirectly affected by the policy change, experiencing price increases of up to 50% on essential goods [8][10] - The time for customs clearance has increased from 1-2 days to over a week, causing families to stockpile low-cost essentials, exacerbating supply shortages [10] Group 4 - The global logistics chain is severely disrupted, with European postal warehouses experiencing significant backlogs, such as Spain's daily accumulation of 30,000 packages [10][15] - Major logistics companies like DHL and La Poste have suspended commercial package services, leading to a breakdown in the global supply chain [10][15] Group 5 - The Universal Postal Union has launched a cost calculator API to help postal services estimate tariffs, but many countries are still suspending services due to unclear tax details from the U.S. [12][14] - The overseas warehouse model is emerging as a more effective solution, allowing goods to be shipped in bulk to the U.S. to avoid cross-border tariffs and reduce logistics time [12][14] - The global trade landscape is changing, with increasing interest in markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, as companies adapt to the new trade environment [15]