Core Insights - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend in employment growth since May [5][6]. Employment Data Summary - Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate rose from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August [1]. - Non-Farm Payrolls: August saw an increase of only 22,000 jobs, well below the expected 75,000, marking a significant decline in job growth [1][2]. - Private Sector Employment: The private sector added 38,000 jobs in August, also falling short of the 75,000 forecast [1]. - Job Vacancies: July's JOLTS report indicated 7.181 million job openings, the lowest since September 2024, with the job openings-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 0.99, the first time below 1 since April 2021 [3]. Wage and Hour Trends - Average Weekly Hours and Wages: Both average weekly hours and average hourly wages saw year-on-year declines in August [3]. Manufacturing and Services Employment - ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI: The employment components for both sectors recorded contraction, with manufacturing at 43.8 and services at 46.5 [4]. - ADP Employment Change: The ADP report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below the expected 68,000 and previous month's 104,000 [4]. Economic Outlook - Overall Employment Market: The data suggests that the U.S. job market is not as healthy as it appears, continuing a trend of cooling without immediate recession risks [5]. - Interest Rate Expectations: Following the non-farm report, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declined, with market expectations now leaning towards three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points [6]. Job Growth Trends - Job Growth Average: Since May, the average monthly job growth has been only 27,000, compared to 127,000 from January to April [6]. - Job Cuts in Goods Sector: The goods sector, particularly manufacturing, has seen a reduction of 42,000 jobs over the past four months [7]. Market Reactions - Market Response: Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stocks initially rose but then retreated, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [5]. - Rate Cut Projections: Analysts maintain expectations for rate cuts in September and December, with a bias towards consecutive meetings for potential cuts [8].
美国8月非农解读
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-07 12:43