松原安全(300893)：被动安全自主新星 国产替代&出海双线并进

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing steady growth driven by dual engines of customer breakthroughs and product category expansion, alongside domestic substitution and international expansion [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Development - The company was established in 2001, initially supplying seat belts and components, and has since expanded into the commercial and passenger vehicle seat belt assembly market [1] - In 2018, the company launched airbag and steering wheel divisions, creating a comprehensive passive safety product matrix [1] - The company has achieved progressive breakthroughs with clients, moving from Tier 1 suppliers to traditional OEMs, joint ventures, new forces, and foreign manufacturers [1][2] Group 2: Market Overview - The passive safety market has a single vehicle ASP range of 1,000 to 3,000 RMB, with increasing safety regulations and standards driving product upgrades [2] - The estimated market size for passive safety products is approximately 420 billion RMB domestically and 1,900 billion RMB globally, with a steady upward trend [2] - The global market is dominated by foreign companies, with the top three (Autoliv, ZF, and Joyson) holding about 90% market share, while the company holds around 1% globally [2] Group 3: Business Logic - The company aims to reduce costs through vertical integration in the supply chain in the short term, while expanding its market share through bundled passive safety product offerings in the long term [3] - The company has a high self-manufacturing rate for key components, enhancing its competitive edge through cost reduction [3] - The company has secured a project with Stellantis, projecting a total lifecycle revenue of approximately 5.5 billion RMB, indicating strong potential for international market penetration [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company anticipates growth from existing seat belt clients, the introduction of airbags and steering wheels to current clients, and expansion into new domestic and international markets [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.7 billion, 3.51 billion, and 4.56 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 37%, 30%, and 30% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 400 million, 530 million, and 680 million RMB, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 32%, and 28% [4]