Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 智通财经网·2025-09-07 13:49Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in overseas ultra-long bond yields are attributed to increasing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and a general relaxation of fiscal discipline among major developed economies during the summer earnings season. This shift in the marginal pricing power of long-term bonds is amplifying market reactions to uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The combination of high interest rates and a weak dollar is expected to benefit risk assets like A-shares and globally priced commodities [2]. - The recent rise in bond yields is driven by two main factors: heightened concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve and a general loosening of fiscal discipline in major developed economies, prompting investors to reassess fiscal responsibility [2][3]. - The traditional holders of long-term bonds, such as central banks and insurance companies, are systematically reducing their holdings, leading to a shift towards private investors who are more sensitive to price changes and demand higher risk premiums [2]. Group 2: Asset Class Analysis - Historical data indicates that the rare combination of a weak dollar and high U.S. bond yields tends to favor value/cyclical stocks and commodities [3]. - In the short term, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to stabilize between 3.95% and 4.35%, with the dollar index projected to range between 95 and 99 [3]. - Domestic bond markets are expected to maintain a degree of independence, with a supportive monetary policy stance still in place, and a potential easing of external constraints as the U.S. may enter a rate-cutting cycle [3]. Group 3: Financial Products and Duration Tracking - As of August 31, the scale of wealth management products has slightly decreased by 8.2 billion yuan, while the overall duration of public funds has increased by 0.01 to 2.38, indicating a slight recovery in market consensus expectations [4].