爆冷非农数据强化美联储降息预期

Economic Outlook - The recent weak employment reports have increased Wall Street's confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this month, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut fully priced in by the market [1][2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job openings falling to a 10-month low and non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs last month, the lowest in nearly four years [1][2] - The unemployment rate has risen to its highest point in almost four years, indicating a cautious approach to hiring among companies due to weak sales and uncertainties related to tariffs [1][2] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high last week but faced a sell-off that reversed gains, reflecting market volatility [3] - Communication services and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains, with Google shares rising 10% after a favorable court ruling [3] - Small-cap stocks are expected to benefit from interest rate cuts, with significant buying activity observed in small-cap stocks and ETFs, reaching the second-largest weekly purchase since 2008 [4] Interest Rate Expectations - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2][5] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is not expected to hinder the Fed's decision to cut rates, with projections of a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI [3] - Concerns remain about the labor market's deterioration, which could overshadow the benefits of additional rate cuts [5]