你救你的市，我跌我的价

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn despite various government measures aimed at stimulating it, with sales and transaction volumes continuing to decline sharply [2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In August 2025, the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by nearly 20% compared to the same period in 2024, and the new home transaction volume in 30 key cities fell by 12% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [2]. - From January to August 2025, the overall sales revenue dropped by over 13% year-on-year, indicating a persistent downward trend [2]. - The average time to sell a house in the 30 key cities exceeds 28 months, with some areas taking over 40 months, suggesting an oversupply in the market [2]. Group 2: Impact of Policy Measures - Some "stimulus" measures have inadvertently increased supply, as developers rush to launch projects earlier than planned to capitalize on policy changes [3]. - Despite policy relaxations such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates, these measures do not address the underlying demographic issues affecting demand [5]. Group 3: Demographic Challenges - The birth rate continues to decline, with the number of newborns in 2025 being less than half of that in 2016, leading to a shrinking pool of potential homebuyers [3]. - In August 2025, only 17% of homebuyers were under 30 years old, a significant drop from five years prior when this demographic represented a much larger share [3]. Group 4: Changing Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic of the real estate market has shifted; properties are no longer seen as guaranteed investments but are returning to their essential function as places to live [5]. - The effectiveness of policies is limited by the income expectations and debt situations of ordinary people, which are critical factors in determining market stability [5].