Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-07 22:53Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in U.S. employment data has increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to a potential marginal easing of liquidity. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and inflation may result in gold prices experiencing high-level fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell to 22,000 in August (previously 73,000, forecasted 75,000), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating increased risks in the labor market [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, suggesting a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [4]. Group 2: Precious Metals - The uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, including recent adjustments signed by Trump, and the marginal easing of liquidity are expected to support gold prices, which may experience fluctuations [3]. - Upcoming U.S. inflation data will be crucial in determining the interest rate path, influencing precious metal prices in the short term [3]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are anticipated to gain upward momentum due to the gradual recovery of demand as the traditional peak season approaches, alongside macroeconomic policy support [2][4]. - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with downstream processing rates increasing and supply disruptions due to maintenance and seasonal factors providing additional support for prices [4].