Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's baseline view is that U.S. GDP growth will slow to around 1% by Q4 2025, with only a slight increase in 2026, indicating that U.S. economic growth may not surpass that of other regions [1] - A recent weak labor market report highlights stagnation in hiring activity, underscoring the downside risks to economic growth [1] - The market is digesting significant risks associated with further easing policies from the Federal Reserve, with expectations that lower rates will stimulate foreign investors to hedge their dollar assets, potentially supporting the dollar [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of public finances in countries like France and the UK are increasing the term premium on the yield curve, putting pressure on the euro and pound, while the U.S. is also affected by these fiscal trends [2] - A key risk for the dollar is the growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding monetary and public policy, with expectations that the dollar will weaken for the remainder of the year [2]
美元汇率深度分析：是否熊市已经结束？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-07 23:10