Core Viewpoint - The domestic rubber market is currently experiencing a lackluster performance, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the potential for a strong upward trend similar to September of last year depends on market momentum changes [1] Supply Side Analysis - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, with Thailand's rubber water price at 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg last year, while Yunnan's rubber water price slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - From January to July, China imported a total of 1.6534 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports reached 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, totaling 3.56 million tons with a 21.92% increase [2] - Monthly data shows a narrowing increase in natural rubber imports since June, turning negative in July, primarily due to frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia delaying rubber tapping operations, leading to tighter supply [2] Demand Side Analysis - In July, there were signs of improvement in demand, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, an increase of 8.87% month-on-month and 11.48% year-on-year, while total exports from January to July were 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires is at a low level, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating some specifications are even out of stock [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period is crucial for channel replenishment [4] - Continuous rainfall has significantly disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling short of expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The raw material price trend will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]
基本面与宏观面共振 天胶保持低位做多思路
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-08 00:13