YLT(SH:600197) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-08 00:24Core Viewpoint - The company is actively addressing pressures in the demand environment while solidifying its foundation domestically and continuing marketing reforms externally [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with a target price adjusted to 17.4 yuan. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 0.54, 0.60, and 0.70 yuan respectively. The target price corresponds to a PE valuation of approximately 32x for 2025 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 280 million yuan, a decline of 44.9%, with a net profit of 18 million yuan, down 52.7% [3]. Financial Performance - As of the end of Q2, contract liabilities stood at 40 million yuan, a decrease of 21 million yuan quarter-on-quarter and down 34.6% year-on-year. The company is focusing on solidifying its foundation and advancing marketing reforms amid a deep industry adjustment [4]. - In H1 2025, the company generated 1.062 billion yuan in liquor revenue, a year-on-year decline of 19.1%. High-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues were 800 million, 200 million, and 70 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8.0%, -42.3%, and -36.0%. The Yili Wang series performed relatively well, with increasing brand recognition and channel penetration [4]. - Revenue from domestic and foreign regions in H1 2025 was 898 million and 164 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 10.1% and 47.9%. Revenue from distributors, direct sales, and online sales showed year-on-year changes of -34.7%, +5.8%, and +59.8%, reaching 692 million, 301 million, and 70 million yuan respectively [4]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company maintained overall profitability in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 49.3%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. Sales and management expense ratios changed by -3.6 and +0.2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The significant decline in sales expense ratio was mainly due to reduced advertising and promotional expenses [5]. - The income tax rate increased by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year to 30.6%, impacting profits in the short term. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 15.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q2's net profit margin was 6.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to slower sales and tax rate fluctuations [5].