Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][4][59] Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [3][7] - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, and patience is required for potential investment opportunities [3][7] - The report highlights that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, suggesting a need for cautious observation [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant decline in liquor demand, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing [3][7] - The current high inventory levels in channels will require time to digest, and the consumption scenarios are still recovering, leading to weak demand [3][7] - Key recommendations include maintaining patience for high-dividend stocks and waiting for potential buying opportunities in quality stocks [3][7] Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, while Wuliangye is trading volume for price [8][9] - Moutai's expected sales decline is in single digits, with prices slightly down to around 1780-1835 yuan [8] - Wuliangye's sales are expected to drop by about 15%, with current prices around 810-830 yuan [8] - Guojiao 1573 is controlling inventory to maintain prices, with expected sales declines of 20-30% [8][9] Regional Liquor Situation - Feedback from various regions indicates a general decline in sales, with specific brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing varying performance [11][19] - The report notes that the business and banquet consumption scenarios are under pressure, with overall sales expected to decline by 30-25% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [44][49] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and sales performance across different brands and regions [11][19] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [53]

在 白酒 行业存量竞争加剧与政策调整影响下，新疆 伊力特 实业股份有限公司（简称"伊力特"， 600197.SH）上半年营收、净利润均出现双位数下降，今年第二季度归母净利润更是跌超五成。业内人 士分析认为，在上半年主要业绩指标大幅下滑的情况下，伊力特今年业绩目标的实现，或面临较大挑 战。 营收净利双双承压年度目标屡屡落空 资料显示，伊力特是一家集白酒生产、研发和销售为一体的农业产业化、 新型工业化 白酒酿造与销售 企业，于1999年9月在上交所上市。 产品收入全线下滑流动负债大幅增长 财报显示，2025年上半年，伊力特实现营业收入10.70亿元，同比下降19.51%；实现归母净利润1.63亿 元，同比下降17.82%；实现扣非归母净利润1.55亿元，同比下降19.90%。单季度看，伊力特在二季度实 现营业收入2.75亿元，同比下降44.86%；实现归母净利润0.18亿元，同比下降52.75%；实现扣非归母净 利润0.11亿元，同比下降66.88%。 伊力特曾在2024年年报中表示，力争2025年实现营业收入23亿元，实现利润总额4.05亿元。面对上半年 营收净利双降的压力，公司能否在下半年扭转业绩颓势，实现先 ...

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on September 24, with Luzhou Laojiao leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Luzhou Laojiao (code: 000568) closed at 131.91, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 62,600 and a transaction value of 826 million [2] - Kweichow Moutai (code: 600519) closed at 1442.00, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 30,700 and a transaction value of 4.443 billion [2] - Yanghe Brewery (code: 002304) closed at 69.11, down 0.30%, with a trading volume of 31,300 and a transaction value of 217 million [2] - Wuliangye (code: 000858) closed at 122.37, up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 130,600 and a transaction value of 1.598 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 394 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 93.998 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among individual stocks, with some stocks like Jinhuijiu (code: 600809) showing a net inflow of 369.30 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Yili Te has experienced a decline of 10.24% year-to-date, with a notable drop of 4.13% over the past five trading days, indicating potential challenges in the company's performance and market sentiment [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yili Te reported a revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million yuan, down 17.82% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.842 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 591 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 23, Yili Te's stock price was 15.08 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 7.135 billion yuan. The trading volume was 26.9163 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.37% [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 2.8935 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 13.97% of purchases and 24.72% of sales [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yili Te was 59,400, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.45% to 7,962 shares [1]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with notable increases in holdings from the second to the fourth largest shareholders [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a recommendation for strong brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a clear growth path in a counter-cyclical environment [5]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a phase of accelerated bottoming, transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment" due to ongoing pressures from excess supply and demand scenarios [3][5]. - The first half of 2025 saw a negative growth in revenue and net profit for major liquor companies, marking the first negative growth in this cycle [15]. - The report highlights a structural opportunity during the volume adjustment period, with market pricing increasingly favoring dividend yield and market share [3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry faced challenges in the first half of 2025, including slow macroeconomic recovery and strict alcohol prohibition policies, leading to a decline in consumption scenarios and continued pressure on demand [5]. - The overall revenue and net profit for 17 major liquor companies were 2368.3 billion and 944.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and 0.9% [15]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, the revenue and net profit for the industry were 867.2 billion and 313.4 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.7% and 7.3%, marking the first negative growth in revenue during this cycle [15]. - High-end liquor maintained positive growth, while the mid-range and regional brands experienced declines [20][22]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market is shifting focus from short-term recovery scenarios to verifying the bottom of demand trends through year-on-year comparisons [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the third quarter, driven by seasonal consumption events such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may accelerate the bottoming process of the fundamentals [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with strong market positions and growth potential, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Guyi Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing, with a significant decline in production and profits in the first half of 2025 [1][2] - A majority of listed liquor companies are experiencing revenue declines, indicating a shift in the industry's growth logic from "volume reduction, price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%. Profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory levels, with over half facing price inversion issues. The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry reached 900 days, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [2] - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue in 2024, up 13 percentage points from five years ago [2] - The median revenue growth rate for the top six liquor companies was 2.36%, while the median for companies below 10 billion yuan was -16.89% [2] Pricing Trends - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining, with notable price drops for major brands such as Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a broader trend of price reduction across the industry [2][3] Expense Management - Despite declining revenues, many liquor companies have increased their marketing expenditures. The median sales expense growth rate for 19 companies was -11.85%, while overall sales expenses remained stable compared to the previous year [4] - The highest sales expense ratio was recorded at 36.35% for Shui Jing Fang, with 58% of companies increasing their sales expense ratios [4][5] - Management expense ratios have also increased, with the highest being 23.59% for Huangtai Liquor, indicating pressure on profitability for smaller companies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.3% on September 11, with strong performance from Jiu Gui Jiu, while the overall market indices also saw gains, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up by 1.65% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up by 3.36% [1]. - The liquor sector's individual stock performance showed varied results, with notable gains from Ji Si Xing at 5.50% and She De Jiu Ye at 2.37% [1]. Group 2: Stock Data - Ji Si Xing (000799) closed at 73.29 with a trading volume of 348,200 shares and a transaction value of 2.533 billion [1]. - She De Jiu Ye (600702) closed at 68.26 with a trading volume of 156,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.060 billion [1]. - Guizhou Moutai (600519) closed at 1523.50 with a trading volume of 37,200 shares and a transaction value of 5.643 billion [2]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 52.239 million from institutional investors and 236 million from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 289 million [2]. - Guizhou Moutai experienced a net inflow of 26,661, while Jiu Gui Jiu had a net outflow of 1.37 billion from institutional investors [3]. - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with retail investors showing interest despite the outflows from larger funds [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively addressing pressures in the demand environment while solidifying its foundation domestically and continuing marketing reforms externally [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with a target price adjusted to 17.4 yuan. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 0.54, 0.60, and 0.70 yuan respectively. The target price corresponds to a PE valuation of approximately 32x for 2025 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 280 million yuan, a decline of 44.9%, with a net profit of 18 million yuan, down 52.7% [3]. Financial Performance - As of the end of Q2, contract liabilities stood at 40 million yuan, a decrease of 21 million yuan quarter-on-quarter and down 34.6% year-on-year. The company is focusing on solidifying its foundation and advancing marketing reforms amid a deep industry adjustment [4]. - In H1 2025, the company generated 1.062 billion yuan in liquor revenue, a year-on-year decline of 19.1%. High-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues were 800 million, 200 million, and 70 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8.0%, -42.3%, and -36.0%. The Yili Wang series performed relatively well, with increasing brand recognition and channel penetration [4]. - Revenue from domestic and foreign regions in H1 2025 was 898 million and 164 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 10.1% and 47.9%. Revenue from distributors, direct sales, and online sales showed year-on-year changes of -34.7%, +5.8%, and +59.8%, reaching 692 million, 301 million, and 70 million yuan respectively [4]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company maintained overall profitability in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 49.3%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. Sales and management expense ratios changed by -3.6 and +0.2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. The significant decline in sales expense ratio was mainly due to reduced advertising and promotional expenses [5]. - The income tax rate increased by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year to 30.6%, impacting profits in the short term. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 15.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q2's net profit margin was 6.7%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to slower sales and tax rate fluctuations [5].

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.81% on September 5, with Shuijingfang leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed the following closing prices and percentage changes: Shuijingfang at 46.39 (+1.42%), Shanxi Fenjiu at 200.03 (+1.40%), and Luzhou Laojiao at 135.90 (+1.35%) [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 77.46 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 67.44 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from speculative funds included Wuliangye with 12.8 million yuan, while it faced a net outflow of 101 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Other stocks like Shuijingfang and Luzhou Laojiao also experienced mixed fund flows, with Shuijingfang seeing a net inflow of 1.36 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group (600197) announced plans to hold a semi-annual performance briefing on September 10, 2025, from 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM [1] Company Summary - The company is preparing for a performance explanation meeting scheduled for September 10, 2025 [1]