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新凤鸣(603225):Q2业绩靓丽 静待长丝景气持续回升

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 33.49 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.93 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.1% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 400 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.2% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 31.4% [1] - The company’s overall gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 6.4% and 2.1%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.4 percentage points and +0.2 percentage points [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The company increased its production capacity by launching two polyester filament production lines, raising total annual capacity to 8.45 million tons, a 650,000-ton increase from the end of 2024 [2] - The PTA production capacity reached 7.7 million tons following the trial production of the third PTA unit at Dongshan Energy [2] - Sales volumes for various products in H1 2025 included 2.416 million tons of POY, 717,000 tons of FDY, 440,000 tons of DTY, 637,000 tons of polyester staple fiber, and 1.088 million tons of PTA, with significant year-on-year growth in PTA sales by 380.3% [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak season in September and October is expected to improve market conditions, with increased operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [3] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with POY, FDY, and DTY inventories decreasing by 10.2 days, 11.9 days, and 4.9 days, respectively [3] - The concentration in the polyester filament industry is increasing, with the CR6 rising from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024, indicating a more favorable supply-demand balance [3] Group 4: Future Projections - The company is expected to add approximately 2 million tons of new annual capacity in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.64 billion yuan, 2.29 billion yuan, and 2.70 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] - The expansion pace in the polyester filament industry is slowing, with a projected 2.3% year-on-year decline in total capacity for 2024 [4]