周大生(002867)：25Q2金价高位震荡金饰行业依然承压但边际改善 业绩表现超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a notable recovery in Q2, driven by improved profit margins despite challenging market conditions [1][4]. Revenue Summary - For H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.9%, with a gross profit of 1.39 billion yuan, down 7.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 590 million yuan, down 1.3% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.5%, while gross profit was 690 million yuan, down 3.2%. However, net profit for Q2 increased by 31.3% to 340 million yuan, exceeding expectations [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, revenue from product categories showed a decline, with gold products at 1.3 billion yuan (down 46.9%) and embedded products at 160 million yuan (down 35.2%) [2]. - Revenue by channel indicated a positive trend in self-operated offline sales at 360 million yuan (up 9.1%) and online sales at 630 million yuan (up 2.6%), while franchise income fell to 840 million yuan (down 60.0%) [2]. - The decline in franchise revenue was attributed to high gold prices leading to store closures and reduced restocking frequency, with a shift towards designated suppliers [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q2 2025 improved to 36.1%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points year-on-year and 9.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by rising gold prices and changes in revenue structure [3]. - The company's expense ratios for sales and management were 12.7% and 1.2%, respectively, with both showing year-on-year increases, but the absolute amounts decreased by 13% and 18% [3]. - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 17.7%, reflecting a 9.4 percentage point increase year-on-year, indicating strong profit performance [3]. Market Outlook and Valuation - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with jewelry and gold bar consumption down 24% and up 18% year-on-year, respectively. Despite challenges, the company adapted to high gold prices and changing consumer trends, achieving unexpected profit growth [4]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 1.11 billion yuan and 1.29 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with current stock prices reflecting a PE ratio of approximately 14x and 12x for those years, alongside a dividend yield of about 6% [4]. - The company is positioned for growth with a focus on expanding its direct sales channels and optimizing product structure, which is anticipated to outperform the industry as market conditions improve [4].