Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-08 01:01Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has surged to 99%, marking the first cut since December 2024, which is expected to reignite global liquidity and create significant opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to provide "triple thrust" for non-ferrous metals: 1. A 1% decline in the US dollar index typically results in a 2.3% increase in prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum. Current LME copper prices have surpassed $9,700 per ton, with expectations to exceed $10,500 post-rate cut [3] 2. Lower financing costs will alleviate financial pressures on mining giants, enhancing capital expenditure flexibility [3] 3. Inflation trading is expected to resurge, with gold's role as an inflation hedge becoming more prominent. Global gold ETF inflows surged 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with COMEX gold prices exceeding $3,600 per ounce [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Key performance indicators highlight companies with strong fundamentals: 1. Zijin Mining's net profit is projected to increase by 42% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with copper mining costs controlled below $3,800 per ton, compared to the industry average of $4,500 [4] 2. Yunnan Aluminum's hydropower aluminum costs are $2,000 per ton lower than thermal power, with a gross margin increase to 21.7% [4] 3. The demand for copper in electric vehicles is significantly higher, with 83 kg per vehicle compared to 23 kg for traditional cars, and solar installations consuming 500 tons of copper per GW, indicating a locked-in demand for upstream resources [5] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The non-ferrous sector currently has a PE ratio of approximately 24, but there is significant internal differentiation: 1. Lithium stocks are overvalued, with PE ratios exceeding 40 (e.g., Ganfeng Lithium at 45), while lithium carbonate prices remain low, raising concerns about earnings realization [6] 2. Copper and aluminum leaders have PE ratios below 15 (e.g., Zijin Mining at 13), with institutional forecasts predicting over 30% net profit growth in 2025, indicating substantial valuation recovery potential [6] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes: 1. Positioning with a total allocation of ≤15%, prioritizing a combination of gold (as an inflation hedge) and copper (due to industrial demand) [7] 2. Buying opportunities are suggested based on the Fed's rate cut magnitude, with a 50 basis point cut prompting immediate buying, while a 25 basis point cut would warrant waiting for a pullback [7] 3. Strict stop-loss rules are advised, with a 8% loss threshold for individual stocks and a sell-off if prices fall below the 20-day moving average [7] Group 5: Key Stocks to Watch - Notable stocks include: 1. Zijin Mining (601899): A global copper mining leader, with short-term performance linked to the recovery of the Kamoa copper mine [8] 2. Shandong Gold (600547): The largest domestic gold producer, benefiting from a cost advantage over peers [8] 3. Yunnan Aluminum (000807): A benchmark for hydropower aluminum, with ongoing premium for green aluminum [8]