贝森特给出“前瞻指引”：美国经济将在四季度“大幅加速”，制造业“不能弹指一挥间建工厂”

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, predicts a "significant acceleration" in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter, contrasting with the current weak employment performance [1] - Becerra acknowledges the loss of 42,000 manufacturing jobs since the announcement of comprehensive tariff policies by the Trump administration in April [2] - He emphasizes that the recovery in manufacturing jobs will take time and cannot happen overnight [2] Group 2 - Becerra questions the reliability of recent employment data, stating that August is typically the "noisiest month" for data and often sees the largest revisions [3] - He criticizes the Federal Reserve for being slow to respond to economic data, suggesting that they should have started lowering interest rates as early as June [3] - Becerra hints at a potential downward revision of up to 800,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm payroll data [3] Group 3 - Becerra highlights record levels of corporate investment intentions, indicating that companies plan to build production facilities in the U.S., which will first create jobs in construction and then in manufacturing [3][4] - The Treasury Department reportedly meets with two management teams daily, with most companies indicating plans to increase capital expenditures and employment [4] - Despite challenges faced by companies like John Deere due to tariff policies, Becerra notes that many companies report that tariffs have benefited their business and are planning to increase capital spending and employment [4] Group 4 - Companies such as John Deere, Nike, and major automakers have warned that tariffs are adding unexpected costs amounting to hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars [5] - Goldman Sachs estimates that 86% of tariff costs are ultimately borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, a conclusion that Becerra completely rejects [5]