Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the coal sector possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, and the current low holdings in coal indicate that the fundamentals have reached a turning point, making it an opportune time for investment [1] - The report highlights four main investment themes in coal stocks: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [1] Group 2 - In the thermal coal market, prices have slightly declined, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price at 679 RMB/ton as of September 5, down 11 RMB/ton or 1.59% from the previous period [2] - The report notes that the current coal market is in a transitional phase between summer and autumn, with non-electric coal demand expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [2] - Factors supporting a rebound in coal prices include low operating rates and decreasing port inventories, with the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 79.5%, down 0.4 percentage points [2] Group 3 - For coking coal, the price at the Jingtang Port is 1540 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, while coking coal futures have increased by 61.2% from 719 RMB in June to the current price [3] - The report indicates that the supply side is tightening due to government measures to check overproduction, while demand is expected to be supported by projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station [3] Group 4 - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above 700 RMB [4] - The report predicts that the future price of thermal coal could reach around 750 RMB by 2025, with a potential peak price around 860 RMB [4] - For coking coal, the target prices are set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with potential target prices of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to different benchmarks [4]
开源证券：非电煤和电煤接力换棒 四主线布局煤炭板块
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-08 01:50