Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Beike-W (02423) is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 6.2 billion, 7.4 billion, and 8.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, benefiting from the stabilization of the real estate industry and maintaining a strong alpha attribute as an industry leader, with a buy rating given [1] - In Q2 2025, the company's total GTV grew by 4.7% year-on-year to 878.7 billion yuan, with second-hand housing GTV increasing by 2.2% to 583.5 billion yuan and new housing GTV rising by 8.5% to 255.4 billion yuan, confirming the company's alpha capability [2] - The company's Non-GAAP operating expense ratio in Q2 2025 was 16.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective management and technology application [3] Group 2 - The new housing take rate in Q2 2025 was 3.37%, remaining stable year-on-year and indicating a high level, with the impact of new housing regulations being limited as the proportion of new products in most cities is low [4] - In the first half of 2025, the company repurchased shares worth 394 million USD, accounting for approximately 1.7% of the total shares issued at the end of 2024, and announced an increase in the existing repurchase plan from 3 billion USD to 5 billion USD, extending the plan until August 31, 2028 [5]
兴证国际：予贝壳-W买入评级 有望受益于地产行业止跌回稳带来的β弹性