黄金VS A股：美联储降息周期下，谁能率先冲破关键点位？

Group 1 - The international gold market has seen a surge, with gold prices surpassing $3,650 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of nearly 38% [1][3] - The recent spike in gold prices is primarily driven by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which reported only 22,000 new jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [3] - The weak non-farm data has heightened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, increasing inflation expectations globally and boosting demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [3] Group 2 - The long-term trend for gold prices remains positive, with a steady increase since 2016, characterized by a slow bull market, and a notable acceleration in the past two years, with a 27.39% increase in 2024 and a 37.82% increase in 2025 to date [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, gold prices could potentially exceed $5,000 per ounce [3] Group 3 - In contrast to the booming gold market, the A-share market is still in a critical breakthrough phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to overcome resistance levels from historical highs in 2007 and 2015 [4] - The A-share market is currently valued at historical median levels, presenting a significant value proposition compared to the average valuation of over 30 times in the U.S. stock market [4] - With the impending rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve, both gold and A-shares face upward breakout opportunities, with the A-share index needing only a 5% increase to reach 4,000 points, compared to a 10% increase for gold [4]