买方大佬质疑中际旭创利润预测，遭国盛通信新人分析师朋友圈怒怼

Core Viewpoint - A debate has emerged in the financial sector regarding the profit forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang in 2027, with a senior buyer questioning the market's common prediction of a net profit target of 25 billion yuan, arguing that linear extrapolation of profits for component manufacturing companies lacks rationality [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Forecast and Market Sentiment - The controversy stems from optimistic market expectations for Zhongji Xuchuang's future profitability, with some analysts supporting the 25 billion yuan profit forecast based on the assumption that the company's production capacity will be fully released by 2027 and that management has stated there will be no price reduction strategy [3]. - Current gross and net profit margins are approximately 30%, significantly higher than Luxshare Precision's 5% net profit margin, leading to the conclusion drawn from financial models by some market participants [3]. Group 2: Criticism and Alternative Perspectives - The senior buyer, Ling Peng, sharply criticizes the simplistic linear extension of current market conditions into the future, highlighting that no company would expand production significantly in anticipation of substantial price declines, akin to a fund manager not heavily investing when expecting a drop in portfolio value [3]. - The debate reflects a clash of analytical paradigms in the financial industry, with one side relying on existing data for financial modeling and the other emphasizing the dynamic changes in business logic [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Analyst Challenges - As Zhongji Xuchuang's industry enters a phase of rapid technological iteration, balancing production expansion with pricing strategies is becoming a critical challenge for analysts' predictive capabilities [3].