Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-08 08:19Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to face pressure on gross profit margin and inventory impairment in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026. Revenue and core net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are slightly declining, but the stock maintains a "buy" rating based on current valuations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 832.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with a comprehensive gross margin of 17.4%, down 4.7 percentage points [2] - Core net profit for H1 2025 was 87.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.5% [2] - The company declared an interim dividend of 25 Hong Kong cents per share, with a payout ratio of 28.7% [2] Group 2: Market Position - In H1 2025, the company recorded contract sales of 1201.5 billion, holding a market share of 2.72%, ranking second in the industry [3] - The company maintained a customer satisfaction score of 90, driven by product and service quality, leading to a project turnover rate significantly above the market average [3] Group 3: Land Reserves - From January to July 2025, the company acquired land worth 550.1 billion, leading the industry in investment scale, with 86% of acquisitions in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [4] - The company’s large-scale urban projects are expected to provide a solid foundation for future sales and profits [4] Group 4: Capital Operations - The company’s commercial operations revenue in H1 2025 was 35.4 billion, stable year-on-year, with shopping centers and office buildings accounting for 81% of the revenue [5] - The company’s first commercial public REIT has been accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, enhancing capital operations and asset value [5] Group 5: Leverage Levels - As of H1 2025, the company’s asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, was 45.7%, down 2.5 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6] - The net debt ratio was 28.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the end of 2024, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.9 times, maintaining an industry-leading level [6]