Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-08 08:48Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities highlights two key directions for investment focus in the transportation industry: anti-involution and domestic demand recovery [1] Shipping - The shipping market is experiencing increased performance differentiation across various segments, with container shipping showing mixed results, specialized vessels performing well, and the oil and bulk markets under continued pressure [1] - Short-term expectations for Q4 are optimistic due to high capacity utilization rates in the oil and bulk sectors during Q3, which may lead to improved pricing during the peak season [1] - Long-term demand-side benefits for bulk shipping are increasing, while supply-side rigidity remains unchanged, indicating a potential long-term turning point [1] Logistics - The express delivery industry faced pressure in H1 2025 due to intensified competition, with varying performance based on cost control capabilities among companies [2] - Attention is drawn to price increases in the second half of the year, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches the peak season [2] - Cross-border logistics and chemical logistics are under pressure due to low industry sentiment and fierce competition, while bulk logistics, excluding large supply chain companies, are also facing challenges [2] - The second half of the year will see chemical logistics and bulk logistics benefiting from anti-involution policies, with rising commodity prices expected to improve operational performance [2] Aviation - The aviation sector saw increased volume but declining prices in H1 2025, with falling oil prices and improved aircraft utilization releasing cost benefits [3] - Major airlines showed improved gross margins, while private airlines experienced mixed results, with some like Huaxia Airlines reporting significant profit growth due to government subsidies [3] - Overall, the industry's profit trends are improving, aligning with market expectations for steady recovery [3] - First-tier airports are experiencing a steady recovery in passenger flow, particularly in international routes, contributing to revenue and profit recovery [3] Infrastructure - Secondary market players are showing structurally better-than-expected performance, awaiting a rebound in bulk trade services [4] - Major highway companies are meeting expectations, with Yuxiu Transportation Infrastructure starting to recover [4] - Port performance remained stable in Q2, while railway demand growth is slowing, with Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway reporting a 75% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q2 [4]