2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-08 09:40Core Viewpoint - Despite being included in the Hang Seng Index, Pop Mart's stock price has continued to decline, indicating a disconnect between market sentiment and index inclusion benefits [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 8, Pop Mart's stock price dropped by 7.11% to HKD 287.6 per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss of HKD 29.545 billion [1]. - Since reaching a historical high of HKD 339.8 per share on August 26, the stock has retreated by 11.94%, while the Hang Seng Index only declined by 0.76% during the same period [1]. Group 2: Product Market Dynamics - The secondary market prices for Pop Mart's core IP, Labubu, have been declining, with first to third generation products experiencing daily price drops of HKD 3-11, and the average transaction price for the fourth generation mini Labubu dropping over 50% from its initial release [1]. - Following the online release of the fourth generation mini Labubu series on August 28, initial demand was high, with prices for complete sets soaring to HKD 3,200, but by September 8, the average transaction price had fallen to HKD 1,446 [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some resellers have paused their purchasing strategies for the Labubu series due to significant price declines, indicating a cautious market outlook [2]. - A notable economist pointed out that the stock price of toy companies is correlated with product market demand, and the current situation with Labubu suggests a potential for continued price declines if the market does not stabilize [2]. - Analysts from Zhongtai Securities noted that while Pop Mart has developed a tiered IP matrix and established a world-class IP in Labubu, there are risks related to the sustainability of consumer interest in IP-derived products and potential sales declines due to insufficient new product offerings [3].