三只松鼠(300783)：短期利润端承压 期待后续全渠道的进一步开拓

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced rapid revenue growth in Q2 2025, but profits declined year-on-year due to increased costs and expenses. The company remains committed to its self-owned brand retail model and anticipates further breakthroughs in offline channels and instant retail [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 138 million yuan, a decline of 52.22% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 51 million yuan, down 77.75% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.754 billion yuan, up 22.77% year-on-year, but net profit was -101 million yuan [2]. Channel Performance - Online revenue in H1 2025 was 4.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, accounting for 78% of total revenue. Notably, Douyin generated 1.478 billion yuan, up 20.8% year-on-year, while Tmall saw a decline of 18.6% to 882 million yuan. Offline revenue reached 1.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, with distribution business growing by 40.2% to 938 million yuan [3]. Gross Margin and Cost Analysis - The company's gross margin slightly declined due to rising raw material costs, with H1 2025 gross margin at 25.08%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. Q2 2025 gross margin was 21.57%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year. Increased expenses were attributed to changes in online platform traffic structure, offline distribution expansion, and new property depreciation [4]. Future Outlook and Adjustments - The company has slightly lowered its profit forecast due to short-term profit pressure from increased costs. It expects revenues of 12.385 billion yuan, 14.560 billion yuan, and 16.722 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 16.59%, 17.56%, and 14.85%, respectively. Net profits are projected at 237 million yuan, 385 million yuan, and 540 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -41.81%, 62.13%, and 40.41%. The company has adjusted its rating to "accumulate" [5].