惊天“地雷”明天引爆？多家投行警告：美国就业数据恐被下修百万！

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market may have been slowing down earlier than previously reported, with economists predicting a downward revision of nearly 800,000 jobs as of March this year, indicating an average monthly reduction of about 67,000 jobs [1][2] - The downward revision is expected to strengthen the anticipation of a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as it suggests that the labor market was not as robust as initially thought [1][2] - The revisions could have political implications, as they may provide evidence for the Trump administration to argue that job growth was weakening before his presidency [3] Economic Impact - The downward adjustment of employment growth is likely to increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, as it sets a broader context for the economy's performance [2] - Federal Reserve officials are expected to consider the revised data in their upcoming meetings, with expectations of lowering borrowing costs [2][5] Political Implications - The revisions will not change the understanding of the current labor market but indicate that the slowdown in hiring began earlier than previously thought, which could be politically leveraged by the Trump administration [3] - The adjustments are part of a regular process to update estimates as more data becomes available, despite criticism from the Trump administration regarding the accuracy of the Labor Statistics data [3] Methodological Considerations - The discrepancies between monthly employment data and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data are attributed to the "business birth-death model," which accounts for net job changes due to business openings and closures [4] - The challenges in accurately calculating these figures have increased since the pandemic, complicating the assessment of labor market dynamics [4]