Brauer: TSLA FSD "Years Away," EV to Face U.S. Challenges, Musk Pay Package "Optimistic"

Core Viewpoint - The current challenge for Tesla is to transition from being primarily an electric vehicle (EV) seller to a provider of advanced technologies and services, such as self-driving and robotics, amidst increasing competition and changing market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Tesla's Business Strategy - Tesla needs to develop a new business plan focused on technological breakthroughs rather than just selling electric vehicles [1]. - The company is facing pressure to innovate beyond its existing models, which have seen only evolutionary changes over the years [1][4]. - The development of self-driving technology is seen as a critical area for future growth, but significant advancements may take years to materialize [1][3]. Group 2: Market Competition and Trends - Tesla remains a major player in the U.S. EV market, but competition from companies like BYD is intensifying, particularly in China [1][4]. - There is a growing interest in hybrid vehicles, and the global EV market is showing signs of plateauing growth [4]. - Upcoming regulatory changes may lead to a temporary spike in EV sales as consumers rush to take advantage of incentives before they expire, followed by a potential significant drop in sales [2][3]. Group 3: Elon Musk's Compensation and Performance - Discussions are ongoing regarding a potential pay package for Elon Musk, which could be as high as a trillion dollars, contingent on achieving specific performance milestones [5][6]. - The board aims to re-engage Musk's focus on Tesla's goals, as there are concerns about his attention being diverted by other ventures [6][7]. - The ambitious targets set for Musk's compensation are viewed as optimistic, even for Tesla's standards [8]. Group 4: Trading Insights - A bullish trading strategy involving a call spread is suggested, with a target price of around $370 for Tesla stock in the near term [9][10]. - Another trading strategy involves a long synthetic combo, which allows for a lower-cost entry into a long position while maintaining the potential for unlimited profit [12][13][16].