Robinhood stock jumps on S&P 500 inclusion, Oracle earnings preview

Market Overview - The US market is experiencing mixed results, with the Dow slightly down, the Nasdaq up about 0.75%, and the S&P 500 showing minor gains [1] - Small caps are close to all-time highs, but the small cap trade has been frustrating for investors over the past few years [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 4.06%, indicating expectations for potential Fed rate cuts [1] Trade Developments - The US is nearing a trade deal with South Korea, with key issues including tariffs on imported cars [2][3] - An executive order from the Trump administration modifies reciprocal tariffs, notably excluding gold from tariffs [2] - The Supreme Court's decision on the legality of tariffs could have significant implications for trade agreements and revenue [2] Oil Market Insights - OPEC has agreed to increase oil production at a slower pace, which is expected to pressure oil prices down [3] - WTI prices are projected to drop to $58 per barrel by Q4 2023 and potentially to $50 by early 2026 [3] - Gasoline prices are expected to decrease by 10 to 25 cents per gallon, with a possibility of reaching a national average of $3 per gallon by 2026 [3] Consumer Behavior - Despite inflation concerns, consumers are still planning to spend on personal care, clothing, and home goods, albeit increasingly on credit [5] - A significant portion of consumers expect grocery prices to rise, leading to a shift towards private label products and smaller shopping baskets [5] - The upcoming consumer price index report is anticipated to show continued inflationary pressures, particularly in the auto sector [5] Corporate Developments - Nvidia shares are up despite a price target decrease, with expectations of strong performance driven by cloud and AI spending [4] - Alphabet faces a lawsuit from Pubmatic over alleged monopolization in the ad technology market, following a previous ruling against Google [4] - Dick Sporting Goods has completed its acquisition of Foot Locker, expected to yield significant cost synergies [4] Economic Outlook - The Trump administration's tariffs are generating significant revenue, but their legality is under scrutiny, which could impact future trade agreements [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is facing pressure to adjust its monetary policy in light of recent economic data, with expectations for rate cuts [9][10] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with revisions expected to indicate lower job growth than previously reported [11][12]