Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-08 23:08Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that Q2 2025 has clearly become the price bottom of the current coal price down cycle, with expectations of a significant recovery in prices starting in July, leading to improved industry profitability [1][2]. Demand Side - In July, the total electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rose by 4.3%, with a growth rate accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to June, indicating a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [1]. Supply Side - In July, the raw coal production was 380 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 40 million tons, primarily due to extreme weather conditions in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi affecting production and sales. For the second half of the year, production is expected to slightly decline due to "overproduction checks," with total production projected to be between 2.35 to 2.4 billion tons, maintaining year-on-year stability [2]. - As of September 5, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton (-1.6%) from the previous week, indicating a peak and subsequent decline in prices. Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decrease [2]. - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1550 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton (-4.9%) as of September 5, with daily iron output slightly decreasing, suggesting that the steel demand remains strong despite the seasonal downturn [2][3]. Industry Review - As of September 5, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1550 RMB/ton (-4.9%), with port-level coke at 1704 RMB/ton (-0.4%). The total inventory of coking coal across three ports was 2.69 million tons, with a utilization rate of 79.18% for coking enterprises with inventories over 2 million tons [3]. - The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle, Australia, decreased by 1 USD/ton (-0.7%), while the cost of domestic coal at northern ports was 31 RMB/ton lower than that of Australian imports. The cost of Australian coking coal was 197 USD/ton, down 3 USD/ton (-1.4%) from the previous week, with domestic main coking coal being 69 RMB/ton cheaper than Australian hard coking coal [3].