Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-09 02:25Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to achieve significant profits in Q3 2025, with a potential reduction in losses in Q4 due to "anti-involution" measures [2][4] - Passenger traffic is estimated to have increased by over 3% year-on-year, with seat occupancy rates improving by approximately 1 percentage point [2] - Domestic oil ticket prices have decreased by about 3-4% year-on-year due to weaker public and business demand [2] Oil Shipping - OPEC+ is likely to continue accelerating production, which will positively impact oil shipping demand [3] - The TCE for the Middle East to China route has risen since August, recently exceeding $60,000, although sustainability remains to be observed [3] - The end of the Middle East's domestic demand peak and increased exports, along with production increases on South American long routes, are expected to gradually benefit Q4 performance [3] Express Delivery - Key regions are experiencing price increases in express delivery services, with significant hikes reported in areas like Guangdong and Zhejiang [4] - The regulatory environment is supporting the sustainability of "anti-involution" measures, which are expected to ease competitive pressures in the industry [4] - The profitability of e-commerce express delivery is anticipated to recover in the second half of the year, contingent on the sustainability of price increases [4] Strategy - The company maintains a bullish stance on aviation, oil shipping, and express delivery sectors, emphasizing the expected profitability in Q3 and the positive effects of regulatory measures [4]