Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Super盈 International Holdings (02111) by 11.8% from HKD 3.4 to HKD 3.8, maintaining an "Overweight" rating while slightly lowering the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 by 1-3% [1] Group 1: Target Price and Valuation - The new target price of HKD 3.8 is based on a discounted cash flow method, equivalent to 5 times the one-year forecasted price-to-earnings ratio [1] - The valuation period has been extended to December 26 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast and Growth Drivers - Sales and earnings are expected to grow by 3% and 11% respectively in the second half of 2025, improving from declines of 2% and 6% in the first half [1] - The improvement is attributed to the resolution of tariff issues, leading to better order flow, particularly in sportswear, with a recovery in orders noted in July and August [1] - Increased utilization rates are anticipated, with fabric and webbing utilization at 75% in the first half of 2025, compared to 80-85% in 2024, contributing to a 60 basis point improvement in gross margin in the second half [1] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Capacity Expansion - The impact of tariffs on profit margins has been limited in the first half, as most brands did not request adjustments for the second half [1] - The expected recovery in Vietnam's production capacity, which had previously stalled due to tariff uncertainties, is projected to lead to capital expenditures of HKD 500-1,000 million over the next two years [1] - This expansion is expected to increase overseas capacity contributions, currently at approximately 40% [1]
小摩：上调超盈国际控股目标价至3.8港元 维持“增持”评级