Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to stabilize its terminal retail performance by 2025, with a focus on controlling discounts and expenses, leading to a potential recovery in profitability. Additionally, the company emphasizes shareholder returns, planning to increase its annual dividend payout ratio from over 50% to 60-70% in the next 2-3 years, while currently trading at a PE of only 8X [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is projected to experience a decline in revenue of 4.7% to 6.589 billion yuan in 2024 due to weakened terminal consumption, but it is actively optimizing operational efficiency, resulting in a gross margin increase of 0.8 percentage points to 76.4% [2]. - The forecasted net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is 613 million, 702 million, and 796 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 31%, 14%, and 13% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a mature multi-brand matrix in the mid-to-high-end women's clothing sector, with core brands Koradior and NAERSI accounting for over 50% of revenue. The compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2018 to 2023 were 22% and 25% respectively, indicating strong growth momentum [2]. - The mid-to-high-end women's clothing market in China is projected to reach a scale of 1.06 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.48%. The market remains relatively fragmented, with a CR10 of only 7.9% [2]. - The company is implementing a "superior product system" strategy, focusing on streamlining SKUs and enhancing product quality through over 300 creative design series annually, while also optimizing its offline store network and expanding online sales channels [2].
赢家时尚(3709.HK)首次覆盖报告：女装龙头锐意进取 25年盈利修复可期