央行弃美债买黄金？真相恐怕没有那么戏剧性

Core Viewpoint - The recent claim that global central bank gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings has sparked excitement, but skepticism remains regarding the accuracy of this data [1][2][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Holdings - Global central bank gold reserves have reportedly exceeded U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in 29 years [3]. - As of June, the estimated value of central bank gold holdings was $3.86 trillion, which is still lower than the $3.92 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities held by foreign officials [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that in the $11.6 trillion of allocated foreign exchange reserves, U.S. dollar assets account for $6.7 trillion, or 58%, but this includes various dollar-denominated assets, not just U.S. Treasuries [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices, which increased by 10.5% since June, could elevate the estimated value of central bank gold holdings to $4.2 trillion, potentially surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings [7][10]. - The assertion that central banks are fleeing the U.S. Treasury market is considered exaggerated; the crossover in values is primarily due to the significant rise in gold prices [9][10]. - Central banks have been steadily increasing their gold reserves since the financial crisis, with no signs of a slowdown despite rising gold prices [11]. Group 3: Data Reliability - The reliability of reserve data is questioned, as U.S. Treasury data may not accurately reflect true ownership due to the use of intermediaries by foreign central banks [14]. - The IMF's COFER report relies on self-reported data from countries, which may not fully capture the actual reserves held [14]. - Concerns about the "weaponization" of the dollar and economic policies have led to some central banks diversifying their reserves, but the extent of this shift may not be as dramatic as suggested by recent claims [14].