欧佩克持续增产，短期油价或将走低｜油市跌宕

Core Viewpoint - The recent domestic oil price adjustment has been suspended, with expectations for a potential decrease in the next round due to oversupply risks and declining demand [1][2][7]. Group 1: Domestic Oil Price Adjustment - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that gasoline and diesel prices will not be adjusted this time, with the unadjusted amount carried over to the next price adjustment [1][2]. - As of September 9, the average price of crude oil was $65.63 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.86%, which did not meet the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [2][3]. - This marks the 18th price adjustment in 2025, with five instances of suspension, indicating stable fuel costs for consumers and logistics in the near term [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Analysis - The current price range for diesel is between 6.8 and 7 yuan per liter, while 92-octane gasoline is priced at 7.2 to 7.3 yuan per liter, reflecting a downward trend in fuel costs compared to last year [3]. - The wholesale price of 92-octane gasoline is 7771 yuan per ton, down 1.3% from the previous adjustment cycle, and diesel is at 6635 yuan per ton, down 1.5% [3]. - Analysts expect a significant probability of a price decrease in the next round of adjustments due to OPEC+ production increases and a lack of geopolitical tensions that could drive demand [1][7]. Group 3: International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown a fluctuating trend, initially rising due to a decrease in U.S. oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, but later declining as market expectations shifted [4][5]. - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, which is lower than previous months' increases, indicating a cautious approach to market share recovery [6]. - The overall sentiment in the market suggests that the increase in production will lead to oversupply, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6][7].