Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-09-10 02:01Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba Group (09988), emphasizing the company's focus on AI and cloud technology as well as the integration of shopping and lifestyle services as key strategic opportunities [1] E-commerce Business - The current e-commerce environment remains competitive, with a shift towards GMV growth as the priority under CEO Wu Yongming, moving away from low-price strategies [2] - The company aims to enhance its take rate through product and technology service fees, expecting a 10% growth in CMR [2] - Due to ongoing competition, profit margins have been declining, and the company may need to continue subsidizing merchants and users to prioritize GMV growth, potentially leading to further margin declines [2] Instant Retail - The instant retail market is projected to exceed 3 trillion by 2030, representing over 16% of the overall e-commerce market, necessitating Alibaba's proactive engagement [3] - Short-term investments in instant retail may lead to over 70 billion losses in FY26, but long-term prospects include contributing over 1 trillion GMV [3] - The focus will be on enhancing synergies between instant retail and e-commerce, as well as optimizing user experience in terms of user structure, order structure, and fulfillment efficiency [3] Cloud Business - The global cloud market is expected to reach approximately 820 billion in 2024, with China's public cloud accounting for about 5.6% [4] - The demand for cloud services is increasing, driven by AI and large models, with major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google ramping up capital expenditures [4] - Alibaba Cloud, as a pioneer in the domestic market, holds about one-third of the market share and is experiencing accelerating revenue growth, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI-enhanced products [4]