兴业证券：维持中国海洋石油“买入”评级 增储上产持续推进

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has effectively increased reserves and production while managing oil barrel costs to cope with international oil price fluctuations. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 132 billion, 135.2 billion, and 140.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year changes of -4.3%, +2.4%, and +4.0% respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 207.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a 7.2% decline in oil and gas sales revenue to 171.7 billion yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders was 69.5 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.73 HKD per share (tax included), which is essentially unchanged year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 45.5% [1] Production and Reserves - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net oil and gas production of 38.46 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, with crude oil production at 29.61 million barrels, up 4.5%, and natural gas production at 5.162 billion cubic feet, up 12.0%, mainly due to contributions from the deep-sea phase II natural gas project [1] - The company maintains its full-year production guidance of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a reserve replacement ratio of no less than 130% [1] Pricing and Costs - In the first half of 2025, the average realized oil price decreased by 13.9% to 69.2 USD per barrel, while the average realized gas price increased by 1.4% to 7.9 USD per thousand cubic feet [2] - The main cost per barrel of oil decreased by 2.9% (0.81 USD) to 26.94 USD per barrel, with reductions in various cost components including operating expenses, depreciation, and other taxes [2] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 57.6 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year, with exploration, development, production capitalization, and other expenditures at 9.1 billion, 36.3 billion, 11.6 billion, and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains its full-year capital expenditure guidance of 125-135 billion yuan [3]