美联储若降息，中国央行会跟吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is a key variable influencing global asset allocation and the monetary policy choices of various countries, with recent dovish signals from Chairman Powell and disappointing U.S. economic data increasing expectations for a rate cut in September [2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Actions - Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. shows only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, leading to a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month according to the "Kahlshe" prediction platform [2] China's Central Bank Response - The focus is on whether the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will adjust its policies in response to the Fed's actions, with a historical precedent showing that China's monetary policy has always been anchored to domestic fundamentals, adhering to a principle of "self-determination" [3][4] Historical Context - In the past three Fed rate cut cycles, the PBOC has not passively followed the Fed. For instance, during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, while the Fed cut rates aggressively, the PBOC raised rates to combat inflation until the economic impact of the crisis became evident [5] - In the 2019-2020 period, although the Fed cut rates significantly, the PBOC's adjustments were more cautious, focusing on market-oriented reforms and targeted measures to lower financing costs for the real economy [6] Current Monetary Policy Characteristics - As the new Fed rate cut cycle begins in Q3 2024, the PBOC's policy remains focused on domestic demand. Recent actions include lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in a measured manner, reflecting a commitment to stabilizing growth and reducing costs without excessive liquidity [7][8][10] Future Policy Directions - The PBOC's monetary policy decisions are based on domestic economic conditions, inflation levels, employment status, and financial market stability, rather than passively following the Fed. The central bank aims to maintain a stable exchange rate while ensuring a conducive environment for domestic policies [11][12] - The PBOC emphasizes a balanced approach between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, indicating that future policies will continue to focus on "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and supporting high-quality economic development [12]