Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-10 05:49Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the recent slowdown in U.S. job growth is a sign of economic bottoming rather than a recession, indicating the early stages of a "rolling recovery" [1] - The firm believes that June marked the low point of the current economic cycle, and non-farm employment will not see a sharp decline unless the economy faces another shock [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist forecasts that the U.S. economy is nearing stagnation and will require several interest rate cuts to regain growth momentum, with improvements not expected until 2026 [2] Group 2: Employment Data - The latest employment report is interpreted optimistically by Morgan Stanley, which states that employment data is lagging and the economy has already entered a recovery phase [1] - The report indicates that the employment weakness was most pronounced around the "liberation day," suggesting a cyclical low in non-farm employment [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 97.90, supported by short covering and market caution ahead of inflation data [3] - The euro and British pound both saw slight declines against the dollar, influenced by profit-taking and the rising expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [4][5]