摩通私人银行：预期美联储本月展开非衰退性降息周期 持续看好美股表现

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's private banking global market strategist Tang Yuxuan indicates the formal initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut strategy, expecting a non-recessionary rate cut cycle to begin this month [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The bank maintains the expectation that the Federal Reserve will start a new round of rate cuts in September, with a projected total reduction of 100 basis points over the next year [1] - Despite ongoing tariff effects and signs of fatigue in the labor market, a recession is not anticipated [1] - Economic growth may slow in the second half of the year, but consumer resilience and strong corporate spending are expected to continue, along with forthcoming policy support [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - The bank remains optimistic about U.S. stock performance, particularly benefiting from robust corporate fundamentals and the expanding impact of artificial intelligence [1] - Outside the U.S. market, the bank has added emerging market stocks outside of China as a preferred non-dollar asset allocation, alongside previously recommended non-U.S. developed market stocks and gold [1] - This strategy reflects expectations of further dollar weakness, improved trade conditions in Asia, and the relative attractiveness of markets such as Taiwan, India, and South Korea in terms of valuation and profitability [1]