氧化铝、沪铝、铝合金：价格走势与合约区间分析

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a downward trend in alumina prices, with significant price drops in the spot market and increased supply pressure [1] - Recent transactions in Shandong show a spot price of approximately 2970 yuan/ton for alumina, with a notable price difference of over 200 yuan/ton between southern and northern regions [1] - The increase in inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a rise of 3591 tons to 114,111 tons, reflects strong selling intentions from traders and an increase in discounted transactions [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context includes a downward revision of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which raises concerns about the credibility of labor data and increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite a slight increase in operating rates for downstream processing enterprises, demand has not significantly rebounded, with social inventory of aluminum ingots remaining stable at 475,000 tons [1] - The aluminum price is under pressure from weak spot trading, with the Shanghai aluminum 10 contract expected to operate within a range of 20,400 to 21,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - The alloy market is experiencing fluctuations, with macroeconomic sentiment cooling due to the revised U.S. non-farm data [1] - On the raw material side, the cancellation of tax rebates in some regions is supporting the price of scrap aluminum, while smelting profits are rising [1] - The price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 is oscillating around -430, with the main contract expected to operate within a range of approximately 20,200 to 20,600 yuan/ton [1]