从人事动荡到降息路径，盘一盘近期美联储经历的关键事件与未来可能经历的“关键战役”

Recent Key Events - On August 2, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Kuger announced his resignation, providing Trump an opportunity to appoint a favored candidate within the Federal Reserve [1] - On August 8, 2025, Trump nominated Stephen Milan for the Federal Reserve Governor position, with a Senate committee vote expected this week and a full Senate vote potentially next Monday, allowing Milan to attend the FOMC meeting on September 18 [1] - On August 22, 2025, Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, signaling a clear dovish stance by shifting the policy focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing employment risks," interpreted by the market as a precursor to a rate cut in September [1] - On August 23, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the results of its long-term monetary policy framework review, stating it would abandon the average inflation targeting and adopt a "balanced approach" when employment and inflation conflict, acknowledging that employment can exceed maximum levels without posing risks [1] - On August 26, 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, who has since filed a lawsuit; on September 10, a U.S. judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to fire Cook, issuing an injunction allowing Cook to continue in his role during the lawsuit [1] Future Important Milestones - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting and release new economic forecasts, with the market widely expecting a resumption of the rate cut cycle, particularly following recent weak employment data that has increased expectations for a 50 basis point cut [3] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold another policy meeting, which will be crucial in determining whether to pause or continue rate cuts, especially if a 50 basis point cut occurs in September [3] - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve will conduct its final policy meeting of the year, which may be pivotal for a potential third (or second) rate cut and will influence market expectations for 2026 policies [3] - In May 2026, the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will end, with the option for him to continue as a Federal Reserve Governor until January 31, 2028, if he chooses to remain [3] - In November 2026, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, where a significant Republican victory could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading Congress to push legislation to undermine its autonomy at the White House's request [3]